Betting On Odds On Favourites

If you want to make money betting on horses you need to be betting against the favorite in the races that it is going to lose, and as you can see that happens more often that not (64.6% of the time). If you are betting. The answer is yes and no. You can make money betting on favorites but only if you are selective. Let's take a look at what that means. Even if you add in a rebate, and you play every favorite in every race, you are going to lose money in the long run. Favorites don't pay enough for you to bet.

There are many ways to bet sports. If you can think of anything to bet on, there's a good possibility you can find somewhere to pick on it. In this document on the different terms used in sports betting lines, including probabilities point spreads lines etc. One of the first aspects of sports betting every new player must learn what the different symbols mean. A plus or minus can mean different things and furious situation. They are used for both point spreads and money line bets, including the price of each jet. A point spread is the number of points projected that separate two teams. A game with a spread will have an underdog (team expected to lose) and a favorite (team expected to win). A favorite 'gives' points and is identified with the negative signs next to the point spreads. The underdog 'gets' points. The spreads happen this way in the gambling of games.

College Football, Baseball and Basketball Betting Odds

A money line bet is on a team to win the game outright (with no point spread) at an adjusted cost. The favorite will have negative odds, while the underdog will have positive odds. The difference here is in the prize or payout, depending on which topic. The terms 'over/under' are synonymous when placing wagers. This type of bet is on the sum of the points scored by both teams in a game. The bookie sets the number for the total then you predict whether they will score less or more points than the set number. For basketball and football, the primary display will show the total and points spread. For baseball and hockey, the money lines appear before it is displayed along with the total of the game, more so happens in hockey.

Hockey Stanley Cup and Football Super Bowl Point Spreads

Understanding NFL football betting odds & weekly point spread is important. If you plan on NFL football picks, this document will be of essence. It's imperative to use live NFL odds for every spread, total and money line for the games in a given week. If the number is positive, then you bet $100 to win that amount. If the number is negative, you have to wager that amount to win $100.Sometimes it will be necessary to use a conversion chart to translate the money lines to take advantage of the betting opportunities that spreads in a week.

Can You Make Money Betting On Favourites

CFB and WNBA Playoff Picks, Nascar and PGA Golf Bets

NBA scoring pace calculator for over and under bets can feel complicated at times. When you bet an NBA total and want to know the current pace of play, you will need to use a calculator to estimate the NBA final score quickly. This tool is useful if you want to know how your basketball over-under bet is looking or if you want to take advantage of the bets opportunities spreads. The same applies to the super bowl and Stanley cup. Without 162 game season per team and 30 teams, MLB is the ultimate sports action for sports gaming. The best MLB betting sites include Betway and Spin palace sports. It is no secret that many people crush bet on MLB, as it has most of the experts.

Soccer Odds, British Open Championship and Premier League Betting Lines

Betting is also done in soccer. Many teams are even sponsored by bookmaking companies. Soccer is one of the most popular sports in the world. At the moment, this is true in the United States. Soccer picks are not overly difficult, even for beginners. You have to decide on which markets to put on focus. There are different markets to welcome, including major domestic leagues such as La Liga Serie A and Bundesliga e t c.

MMA UFC and College Basketball Week

The advantage of major domestic leagues is that they offer soccer picks advantages. These include:

Betting On Odds On Favorites Today

• Attacking players are in good form
• You can set-piece specialist
• Defenders like to get forward at set-pieces

A quick search for betting on favourites on Google throws up hundreds of “fool-proof” systems for making money, which simply require your credit card details and a one-time payment of $100 to read about them. And one of the most common “systems” you will encounter is betting on favourites, because here we find there is some truth behind the lies.

A lot of academic research has been done into the so-called favourite longshot bias in betting markets. All winning betting strategies are based on exploiting market inefficiencies and when it comes to favourites there appears to be rather a large one in place. Put simply, favourites are much closer to “true odds” than longshots.

One major study you will find quoted in lightly researched articles on favourite betting is by two American academics who examined the results of over 6 million horse races in America and found backing favourites lost at a rate of 5.5% while backing from 3/1-15/1 lost at 18% on average.

The good news for bookmakers there is no matter what people bet on they lose, but it’s a significant difference between favourites and longer odds bets. Favourites are priced up more accurately than longshots. It’s also been shown to apply to other markets with particular application to political and novelty markets where it seems the shorter the odds the greater the bias.

Favourites in Football

In the last 20 years a number of research papers have been published to see if this applies to football with confusingly mixed results. Some say yes, some say no and some say both. If you were hoping that a simple “always bet on the favourite” strategy was your route to profit, then think again. But there are some key lessons:

1. Betting on the favourite is rarely a bad bet
2. Shorter priced favourites are often better value than longer priced ones
3. You need to do some work of your own

What various academic and recreational research from bettors has found is betting on favourites generally allows you to lose more slowly. This isn’t a great long-term strategy, but as a starting point it at least demonstrates that betting the favourite is rarely a bad bet. As a starting point, losing at a slow rate is a damn sight better than most punters manage.

For some bettors the nature of betting short-priced favourites seems counterintuitive to their notion of “value”. Risk reward is an odd concept, and betting £100 to win £20 on a 1.2 selection doesn’t seem hugely attractive to many, but research has shown this is often a better bet than £100 on a 1.8 shot in terms of expected long-term returns.

A good demonstration of this comes in rugby union, where New Zealand will often be priced at something absurdly unattractive like 1/80 to beat most sides outside the top six. But losses to those teams are extremely rare. In fact the All Blacks have never lost to an international team that isn’t Australia, England, South Africa, France or Wales. Never. How good does your 1/80 look now?

The All Blacks are perennial favourites. Their 2015 World Cup winning team is regarded by many as the greatest rugby team ever assembled

When favourites betting goes bad

But if you are too cavalier with these kinds of stats you can come unstuck as South Africa showed in the Rugby World Cup where they were 1/100 to beat Japan. The Springboks had similar stats to New Zealand, having only lost internationals to 8 teams in their history. The loss to the minnows of Japan was the biggest shock of the tournament, but it should be seen as an exception and not the rule.

There were warning signs including an improving Japanese side a South African side that lost all three of its games in the Rugby Championship including at home to Argentina. And the final and most important point is you can’t just trust blindly in backing short-priced favourites and expect to never be stung for a big loss now and again.

Take the 2015/16 Premier League as an example of how favourites perform on a long-term betting basis. The 2014/15 season threw up a rather conveniently even 100 wins from 150 games where the home side was under 2.0. In other words odds-on to win. This would have given a total profit of £4.85 to a £1 level stakes bet. Pretty good.

The following season, by early February, there were 50 winners from 91 games for a total loss of £13.75 to the same level £1 stakes. The 2013/14 season had 99 winners from 143 games for a season-long profit of £1.21. So it shows that an expected long-term trend can sometimes go wildly off track.

In Conclusion

So what does all this tell us? Well firstly that this is not an exact science and secondly that despite the 15/16 anomaly there is a lot of value to be had in odds on favourites. What it should encourage you to do is go and analyse the huge wealth of stats and betting data that exists for free on the internet and try and find your own conclusions.

Find a data source and play around with the results. Spot a pattern and develop a system that works for you by refining the data and using your own insight into what might make odds-on chances more or less likely to win. But don’t, whatever you do, fall into the trap of thinking a 1.20 bet doesn’t present value.

Top Tips

• Betting on the favourite is rarely a bad bet
• Shorter priced favourites are often better value than longer priced ones
• You need to do some work of your own