Ten Bet
Week 10 of the NFL season has multiple big-time games that could eventually decide playoff seeding. It’s a heavy late-afternoon schedule that will make this a wild week for NFL betting. Below, we will be creating a 5-bet NFL parlay with several money line underdogs. Let’s take a look at our top Week 10 NFL parlay.
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NFL Week 10 parlay picks and predictions
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Leg 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (+210)
Tampa Bay is coming off a blowout loss to the New Orleans Saints and everyone believes they will bounce back against Carolina. Given some of the problems the Buccaneers have on offense, don’t be surprised if the Panthers hang around a little too long in this game at home. At +220, I love the value of the Panthers to win outright given their offensive weapons. Expect this to be a close game and for the Panthers to potentially steal one in the division.
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Leg 2: Denver Broncos +4.5 (-110) at Las Vegas Raiders
Another divisional game worth monitoring occurs in the AFC West between the Raiders and Broncos. Las Vegas is 5-3 on the season, but it currently has one of the league’s worst defenses. The Raiders should win this game, but they are giving too many points here. Look for this game to come down to the last play and for the Broncos to stay within a field goal.
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Leg 3: Houston Texans (+160) at Cleveland Browns
It’s hard to trust the Texans after barely beating the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 9. Then again, it’s tough to bet on Browns QB Baker Mayfield, either. This is strictly a value play on Texans QB Deshaun Watson as the hope is that he can find a way to expose Cleveland’s weak secondary.
Leg 4: Seattle Seahawks (+105) at Los Angeles Rams
Under head coach Pete Carroll and QB Russell Wilson, the Seahawks are rarely underdogs. They are this week as they take on the Rams. There is reason to be concerned about the Seahawks defense, but it’s just too hard to bet against Wilson and his weapons on offense. At even odds, take Seattle to pull off the upset here in Week 10 and avoid losing back-to-back games.
Also see:Seahawks at Rams odds, picks and prediction
Leg 5: Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots +7 (-110)
The Ravens have traditionally fared well against the Patriots, but something seems off with this Baltimore team. QB Lamar Jackson is struggling in the passing game and the Ravens have multiple big injuries on defense. It wouldn’t be all that surprising if the Patriots found a way to win this game at home, but I love the idea of them covering a 7-point spread on Sunday Night Football.
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5-TEAM PARLAY Bet $100 to earn a profit of $5,922.02
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Panthers WR Curtis Samuel has highest catch rate at his position (Panthers Wire)Phillip Lindsay reveals the key to fixing Broncos’ offense (Broncos Wire)Follow @Marcus_Mosher on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
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Miami, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Green Bay have been the best teams against the spread so far this season, all 6-2 ATS. Dallas has been the worst at 1-8 ATS.
Here are the top things to know for each game in Week 10.
Odds listed are from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and subject to change.
Sunday's games
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3), 1 p.m. ET
• Houston is 0-5 ATS as an underdog, and 0-4 ATS on the road.
• Houston is 1-7 ATS and 0-5 ATS against teams with winning records.
• Since the start of the 2008 season, these teams have faced off five times, with Houston covering in all five games.
• Cleveland is 15-31-1 ATS coming off a loss since the start of the 2016 season.
• All four of Cleveland's games against teams with losing records have gone over the total.
Washington at Detroit Lions (NL), 1 p.m. ET
• Washington is 4-12-1 ATS in games that follow a loss since the start of last season.
• Detroit is 2-9 ATS since the start of last season in November or later.
• Detroit has failed to cover at home this season (0-3 ATS).
Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers (-14), 1 p.m. ET
• Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in games that follow a loss. Jacksonville is also 0-3 ATS in its past three games on the road and as a road underdog.
• Green Bay is 5-1 ATS against teams with losing records.
• Green Bay is 1-5 as a double-digit favorite since the start of the 2015 season.
• If this line stays at 14 or larger, it will be Green Bay's largest line as a favorite since the last time Green Bay played Jacksonville at home in 2012 (-15.5, won 24-15).
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at New York Giants, 1 p.m. ET
• New York (N) is 5-0 ATS in its past five games as an underdog.
• New York (N) is 2-12 ATS as a home underdog since the start of the 2018 season.
• Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS as a favorite this season.
• The over is 23-10-2 in Philadelphia road games since the start of the 2016 season.
• Favorites are 25-11 ATS in NFC East divisional games since 2017.
• Home underdogs in divisional games are 11-2 ATS this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) at Carolina Panthers, 1 p.m. ET
• Teddy Bridgewater is 21-4 ATS as an underdog, best cover percentage as an underdog in the Super Bowl era (minimum 10 games as underdog). He is 5-2 ATS as a home underdog, including 3-0 ATS as a home underdog of more than a field goal.
• Bridgewater is 16-2 ATS when getting at least three points as an underdog, including the playoffs. Carolina has covered five straight games when it has been an underdog.
• Tom Brady is 7-1 ATS coming off a loss of 20 or more points in his career, and he's 19-6 ATS after a double-digit loss (16-3 ATS since 2003).
• Tampa Bay is 4-0 SU (straight up) against teams with losing records this season, and Carolina is 1-5 SU against teams with winning records.
• Home underdogs in divisional games are 11-2 ATS this season.
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (-5), 4:05 p.m. ET
• The over is 7-1 in Las Vegas games this season, tied with New Orleans for the highest over percentage in 2020.
• Since the start of the 2018 season, Las Vegas is 4-0 ATS against Denver. Las Vegas is also 4-0 ATS in its past four games against AFC West opponents.
• Denver is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 games following a loss (9-4 ATS under Vic Fangio).
• Denver is 16-8 ATS in its past 24 games as an underdog (12-7 ATS under Fangio).
• Unders are 23-10-2 in AFC West games since 2017.
Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins (-2.5), 4:05 p.m. ET
• Miami has covered in four consecutive games. Miami is also 4-1 ATS as a home favorite since the start of the 2018 season. Miami is 15-5 ATS since its Week 5 bye last season, the best mark in the league.
• Miami is covering by an average of 11.2 points per game this season, on pace to be the best mark in the Super Bowl era (current high: 1967 Oakland,11.1).
• In the 12 games between these two franchises since the start of the 2002 season, the total has gone under 11 times.
• Los Angeles (A) is 10-4-2 ATS as a road underdog under Anthony Lynn.
• Los Angeles (A) is 2-8 ATS in November or later since the start of last season.
• Five straight Los Angeles (A) games have gone over the total. The over is 5-2 in Justin Herbert starts.
Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5), 4:05 p.m. ET
• In games against teams with winning records, Buffalo games have gone over the total five of six times this season.
• Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its past five games overall, and in its past five road games.
• Unders are 6-2 in Arizona games this season.
• Arizona is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite since 2018.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5), 4:25 p.m. ET
• Since drafting Russell Wilson in 2012, Seattle is 23-10-2 ATS as an underdog, the best mark in the NFL during that span.
• Los Angeles (N) is 6-1 ATS in its past seven games following a loss, and 5-1 ATS in its past six games as a home favorite.
• Los Angeles (N) is 12-7 ATS against NFC West opponents under Sean McVay (12-5 ATS in past 17 games).
• Los Angeles (N) is 9-2-2 ATS following a bye week since the start of the 2007 season (2-1 under McVay).
• The total has gone over in each of the past five Los Angeles (N) games.
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-9.5), 4:25 p.m. ET
• Since the start of last season, San Francisco is 6-1 ATS as a road underdog, the second-best mark in the NFL in that situation (Chiefs 2-0).
• The over is 7-1 in New Orleans games this season, and 4-0 when New Orleans is home.
• Since the start of last season, San Francisco is 9-3 ATS on the road, the third-best mark in the NFL during that span.
• Drew Brees is 10-16 ATS as the Saints' starter when favored by nine or more points.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5), 4:25 p.m. ET
• Cincinnati is 3-0 ATS in its past three road games, and its past three games as an underdog.
• In the past 10 seasons, Cincinnati is 31-16-2 ATS as a road underdog, the second-best cover percentage in the NFL in that situation during that span.
• Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS against teams with winning records this season.
• Pittsburgh has covered each of its past three home games.
• Underdogs are 15-6-2 ATS in AFC North games since 2018.
Baltimore Ravens (-7) at New England Patriots, 8:20 p.m. ET
Teen Bet
• New England is 12-3 ATS and 10-5 SU as a home underdog under Bill Belichick. This is the first time New England has been a home underdog since Week 9 of 2014 (+3 vs. Denver, won outright). In the past 15 seasons, New England has won all three times it has been a home underdog. Overall, New England has won six of the past seven times it has been a home underdog, with all seven games going over the total.
• This is the most points New England has gotten as a home underdog since 2001.
• Since the start of the 2006 season, New England is 21-7 ATS as an underdog.
• Lamar Jackson is 11-2-2 ATS on the road in his career.
• New England is 10-0 ATS in games that come off fewer than six days of rest since the start of the 2016 season.
• Baltimore is 9-2 ATS in November or later since the start of last season.
• In all four of the meetings between these two teams since the start of the 2013 season, the total went over.
Monday's game
Ten Beta
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at Chicago Bears, 8:15 p.m. on ESPN
• Kirk Cousins is 0-9 ATS and SU in his career on Monday nights -- the worst marks of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era. Seven of the nine losses are by two scores, and three of the losses came as a favorite.
• Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its past six games.
• Minnesota is 40-22-1 ATS as a favorite under Mike Zimmer.
• Since the start of the 2013 season, Minnesota is 40-20-2 ATS in November or later.
• Chicago is 10-4-1 ATS in its past 15 games as a home underdog (4-3 ATS under Matt Nagy).
• Cousins is 5-2 ATS as a road favorite since joining Minnesota in 2018.
• All five NFC North divisional games have gone over the total this season. Last year, NFC North games were 9-3 to the under.
Ten Bets You Always Win
• Home underdogs in divisional games are 11-2 ATS this season.