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The first of seven road course races on the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series schedule will drop the green flag Sunday at Daytona International Speedway’s 14-turn, 3.61-mile road course, a hybrid layout of the infield course and high banks of the 2.5-mile oval.
Fantasy Auto Racing picks for O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Special to Yahoo Sports By Dan Beaver. The early-season schedule is loaded with unrestricted, intermediate speedways. Races at Atlanta Motor. Top 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 predictions The model is high on Brad Keselowski, even though he's a 15-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Daytona odds 2021. He's a target for anyone looking for. Top 2021 O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 predictions The model is high on Brad Keselowski, even though he's a 15-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Daytona odds 2021. He's a target for anyone looking for. Take a look as we provide our 2017 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 race picks! If you read my preview for Saturday’s Xfinity Series race, then I discussed in detail the factors that were causing the troublesome racing conditions at Texas Motor Speedway. Teams did not get a.
Yes, seven road races. What happened? How did we get to seven after receiving blowback from fans when adding three races to the schedule three years ago?
From 1988 to 2017, there were just two NASCAR road courses -- Sonoma Raceway, Watkins Glen International -- and then NASCAR added the Charlotte Roval to the playoffs in 2018 giving us three on the schedule through 2020.
O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 (Daytona) NASCAR Preview and Fantasy Predictions By Tom Bowles, 2/20/21, 1:00 PM EST Daytona's road course the first of many changes on the 2021 NASCAR schedule.
But the pandemic allowed only two road races in 2020 with California (Sonoma) and New York (Watkins Glen) being shut down which put Daytona’s road course in play for the first time in NASCAR history as the schedule was released in staggered stages on the fly.
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- Date: Sunday, February 21, 2021
- TV-Time: FOX, 3:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Daytona International Speedway
- Location: Daytona Beach, Florida
The original 2021 schedule had six road courses but with California Speedway being forced to cancel due to the state’s strict COVID-19 protocols, Daytona’s road course was there again on the fly and added. Seven road course events for the 36 points-paying dates.
The majority of Cup drivers aren’t very good on road courses -- making left and right turns -- giving the few that do excel a huge advantage in season points. I’m thinking the majority of fans and drivers would probably prefer more short tracks than having a fifth of the schedule loaded with road courses.
“I would probably vote for short tracks just because of the fact that I think that short-track racing is a lot of fun to watch,” said two-time road course winner Kevin Harvick. “The road courses will be great to mix it up, but when you look at the short tracks, everybody can see what’s going on from their seat and not wonder what happens the next time around. I think there’s a balance between adding more short tracks compared to road courses.”
Chase Elliott won last year's road race at Daytona in August and he's pegged as the top favorite on Sunday. (AP)
Handicapping NASCAR at Daytona Road Race
Sunday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 253 will be the second race of 2021 and also the second NASCAR points race ever held on the road course, although the Rolex 24 Hours of Daytona has been racing on it since 1962. The thing I like most about this course is the speed of the cars using the 750 horsepower and short spoilers ripping around the high banks.
NASCAR also scheduled the non-points Busch Clash on the Daytona road course for the first time since the exhibition invitational began in 1979 so the 21 drivers that participated two weeks ago will have a huge edge coming in this week. They got 35 laps of quality time on the track and the top drivers in that race were no surprise. It was the same guys that have been dominating road races for the past five seasons. Denny Hamlin led a race-high 25 laps and finished sixth.
“Yeah, we had a fast car during the Clash, and I’m sure this weekend won’t be any different,” said Hamlin who the Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook set at 12/1 odds to win this week. ”We’ll take that data and learn from it, and it will certainly help us as we return to the same course. It’s going to be a tough race like all road courses are, but I’m confident in our team to put us in a position to win.”
Hamlin is one of those few drivers who excel on the road courses with seven top-fives in his last 12 of them, which includes a 2016 Watkins Glen win and runner-up on the Daytona course last season.
But he isn’t one of the top-two favorites at the Superbook this week.
NASCAR Cup Odds - Daytona Road Race
- Chase Elliott +250
- Martin Truex Jr. +600
- A.J. Allmendinger +800
- Kyle Busch +800
- Denny Hamlin +850
- Ryan Blaney +900
- Kevin Harvick +900
- (Odds Subject to Change)
It’s all about Chase Elliott at 5/2 and Martin Truex Jr. at 3/1 odds with everyone else at 12/1 or higher.
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Without even seeing how they’ve done statistically, the odds immediately tell you something like no other NASCAR odds board has said. The odds say it’ll be a major surprise if one of those two doesn’t win and that’s the dilemma everyone betting this race has to deal with.
The duo has combined to win nine road courses in their career and they've won eight of the last nine road races dating back to 2017.
Elliott leads all active drivers with five road wins and has won the last four in a row, not counting the Busch Clash where he was runner-up after wrecking his best friend Ryan Blaney who was leading on the last turn of the last lap. It’s a great feeling betting Elliott when you know he’ll wreck his best friend for the trophy.
“Road courses have been good to us the past few trips, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to go good every time,’ Elliott says.
“There has not been one part of me that watched the schedule change, saw seven road courses and thought, ‘Yeah, we’ve got it now.’ That’s just not how I am. At the end of the day, you have to be good everywhere and I want to be good everywhere. We as a team want to get to the point where we can win on any given week: road course, circle track, intermediate, dirt…whatever it is, we want to be able to win at any time. The great teams and the great drivers are capable of doing that, and I think we are capable doing that. So that’s where my head’s at – trying to be good everywhere.”
And that’s our 2020 NASCAR Cup Champion. He says all the right things all the time, but not like a robot. He’s a calculated cool. But the oddsmakers certainly added some bump into his odds to win his second straight title with William Hill sportsbooks offering him at 5/1 odds.
It’s not quite Jimmie Johnson in-his-prime future odds, but it’s close. Hamlin and Harvick, who combined to win 16 races last season, are both 6/ to win the championship.
Blaney is the interesting look this week as the SuperBook is offering him at 16/1 odds to win Sunday. We just saw him almost win the Busch Clash two weeks ago with a great set-up. He has top-fives in four of the last six road course races, including a 2018 win on the Charlotte Roval hybrid where he scooped a scavenger win as Jimmie Johnson wrecked leader Truex on the last turn of the last lap.
Kyle Busch was the scavenger winner in the Busch Clash, coming from third to win, after the Elliott-Blaney dust-up. Busch is a four-time road course winner from what seems like way back, but there appears to be a new sense of urgency to run well with a new crew chief, the Clash win, and running well in the Daytona 500 until a late wreck. It’s all positive vibes and he’s 16/1 to get his first points-paying road win since 2015 at Sonoma.
William Byron is also offered at 16/1 odds this week. He’s a driver I think will be the next driver with no road course wins to grab one.
I don’t know when, but I’ll suggest it’ll be either Charlotte or Daytona because of the speed incorporated on the banking. In his last four road races he was sixth in the Busch Clash two weeks ago, sixth on the Roval last season, eighth at Daytona, and sixth at the Roval in 2019. He’s led 21 laps or more in three of his last six road starts.
“I don’t have a ton of experience on road courses, but I have gotten much more comfortable with them the last couple years and I think our most recent races show that,” Byron said. “We haven’t had a ton of track time at the Daytona road course but running the Clash last week helped us dial things in a bit better. Starting position is a big factor as well and, unfortunately, we won’t have the best starting spot based off the scoring metric. There are ways to make up positions on road courses, depending on the strategy you use. We’ll take the notes we have and do what we need to do to get a good finish.”
Byron will start 22nd, last week’s Daytona 500 Michael McDowell will start second, Elliott starts from the pole.
I think this is one of those weeks where regardless of your betting strategy or who you like to win, Elliott should be somewhere in that equation. Don’t be that guy that throws the favorite out this week.
And the last thing, get a piece of Blaney as well.
O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 Contenders
O'Reilly Auto Parts 253
Top-5 Finish Prediction
- 1) #9 Chase Elliott (5/2)
- 2) #12 Ryan Blaney (16/1)
- 3) #19 Martin Truex Jr. (3/1)
- 4) #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1)
- 5) #18 Kyle Busch (16/1)
Odds Subject to Change - Per the SuperBook
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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Texas Motor Speedway for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. The green flag drops Sunday at 3 p.m. ET with the race televised on NBCSN. Below, we analyze the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 odds and betting lines, with NASCAR picks and tips with odds from BetMGM sportsbook.
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Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 7:05 a.m. ET.
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Sunday’s race at Texas Motor Speedway will be the 39th installment since its NASCAR Cup Series debut race back in 1997 – won by Jeff Burton.
Kevin Harvick won last season’s race from the pole, and has taken checkers in three of the past five Cup races in Fort Worth. Last year’s win from the pole was the first time that had been done in 13 Texas races when Kyle Busch turned the trick in the spring 2013 race.Harvick has registered 10 straight finishes inside the top 10 at Texas, and has been 10th or better in 22 of his 34 Cup starts at the track.Joe Gibbs Racing’s Erik Jones leads all drivers with a 9.43 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in seven Cup starts, while Ganassi Racing’s Matt Kenseth is second among active drivers with a 9.47 AFP in 30 Texas starts.Chevrolet has been to Victory Lane just once in the past eight Texas starts, while Ford has three wins and Toyota has four checkered flags during the span.Seven-time champ Jimmie Johnson leads all active drivers with seven Cup victories at Texas. Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Harvick each have three victories at the track.Who is going to win the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500?
HARVICK (+350 for Sunday’s race) has not only been the gold standard at Texas Motor Speedway lately, but he and HAMLIN (+600) have been the two most consistent drivers since NASCAR resumed the regular season.
Harvick has two wins in the past four Cup races, and has been 10th or better in 14 of his 17 starts overall this season.
JOHNSON (+2200) hasn’t won since the June 4, 2017, Dover race. Eventually the No. 48 machine is going to return to Victory Lane. Why not in Texas? Johnson, who will start out of the 20th spot in Sunday’s grid, won from the 24 spot in the 2017 spring race. J.J. is certainly worth a small-unit bet at this price point.
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JOEY LOGANO (+1100) is a pretty strong value at this price given the fact he has finished seventh or better in seven of the past eight Texas starts. He hasn’t won since the Duck Commander 500 back in spring 2014, but his 10 top-5 finishes in 23 Cup starts at TMS is certainly impressive.
Texas Motor Speedway long-shot bets
WILLIAM BYRON (+3500) has rather long odds, but he is worth a look this weekend. He was 17th in the fall race at Texas, but he has finished 10th and sixth in the previous two spring runs in Fort Worth.
MATT KENSETH (+3500) has a pair of Texas wins on his resume, while posting 14 top-5 runs, 19 top-10 finishes and 883 laps led in 30 career Cup starts with a 9.47 AFP. As such he certainly warrants plenty of consideration.
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